Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC) Coinbase

Augur vs Fairlay

For those who are not familiar with Fairlay, it allows you to create your own market and settles in BTC. Supports live odds, quick settlements, etc., all the stuff you would need out of a P2P prediction market.
Now I am well aware that the settlement process for disputed outcomes is different in Fairlay. It’s a highly centralized model. That’s where the Rep token holders come in handy in the Augur platform to resolve disputes in a decentralized manner. But if you assume for the most part market creators are settling markets correctly, what benefit does Augur provide over Fairlay?
If Fairlay’s volume is anything to go by, I would say the demand is pretty weak. Even the world’s largest sports betting exchange (Betfair exchange), has low volume. Just look at the live volume during the NBA finals for example. In Fairlay, you could barely get any action for game 1 (under 1btc in the order book matched).
Given all that, what is a realistic expectation of people using these platforms on a large scale? If someone wanted to capture profits from an outcome he/she has insider info about, it’s easy enough for that person to make a market on a platform like Fairlay/Augur, but as it stands today such markets hardly gets much action/orders matched to really make big money.
Another example was Fairlay’s volume during the US elections in 2016. Yes, a few hundred bitcoins were matched(when btc was priced at $750), but that’s not really considered to be crazy volume for such a major event. Is it a matter of awareness for such platforms, or are we overestimating the need for such platforms?
Once again, I am merely looking at the reasons why masses would adopt a decentralized solution like Augur over a centralized one like Fairlay in large scale, when the latter is perfectly able to settle marked quickly and allows for anyone to create any market.
I am invested in Rep, but I want to discuss a realistic expectation of the value/demand for such a platform and I thought Fairlay was a good proxy.
This is not meant to be Fud. Just want to welcome healthy discussion as I have a lot interest in this space.
submitted by cryptostarz to Augur [link] [comments]

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